08/01/24
Joe Biden Drops Out: Who Will Step Up as the Democratic Nominee and How Do They Compare Against Trump?
Author: Nathanael Mayer
Editor(s): Kushagra Sadwal
It has been just over a week since Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race on July 21st, providing enough time to evaluate the impacts and predict the future of the Democratic party. Just an hour after announcing his resignation, Biden endorsed his vice president, Kamala Harris, as the new Democratic nominee. Soon after his endorsement, as well as others by the Clinton family, the Obamas, etc., Kamala Harris officially garnered enough delegates to be considered the presumptive Democratic nominee.
There has been public outcry from some Democrats and Republicans, who argue that Harris was not chosen democratically but was simply "installed" into this position instead. Despite this controversy, as well as the mass confusion and shock that came with Biden's withdrawal, Harris has already secured the majority of the Democratic party’s estimated 3,949 pledged delegates and thus has won the Democratic nomination. Specifically, delegates are individuals chosen to represent their state or territory at their respective party’s conventions. Each delegate will officially cast their vote for the Democratic nominee during the Democratic National Convention, which is scheduled for August 19-22 at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois.
Now that Harris has been identified as the likely replacement for Joe Biden, who will she choose as her running mate? Harris is expected to announce her pick for her future running mate sometime next week, a critical decision for her campaign. The vice presidential pick can significantly influence the outcome of the election. This has already been seen with Donald Trump's running mate, J.D. Vance, who has the lowest polling numbers for a VP pick in history, which is currently harming Trump's campaign. Depending on her pick, Harris’s selection could greatly improve her chances of winning primaries and the general election. Among the favored potential running mates are Senator Mark Kelly, who has the highest approval rating, Governor Josh Shapiro, and Governor Andy Beshear, who are second and third most favored by registered voters.
So, how does Kamala Harris compare to Donald Trump? According to the most recent polls conducted by Reuters/Ipsos from July 26-28, Harris is favored by 1 point over Trump. The poll showed Harris was supported by 43% of registered voters, while Trump has 42%. It is important to note that the estimated margin of error in these polls is 3.5%, similar to the elections conducted early and mid-July that showed Trump with a slight edge over Harris. This suggests that Harris has been gaining momentum throughout July, and if she can maintain her popularity, she may stand a strong chance against Trump in the upcoming election.